Commentary
On the battlefields of Ukraine, Idealism is laying waste to Realism
27 April 2022
Truth, they say, is the first casualty of war. But perhaps this time, it is a lie that has been killed.
The lie I am talking about is a big one: the theoretical framework called “realism” which has long been the dominant school in foreign policy. Realism is essentially a self-fulfilling prophecy. It is based on the premise that all states want to do is to advance self-interest and take advantage of everybody else. In terms of policy prescriptions, it amounts to little more than the idea that since everyone is going to do nasty things, we better hurry up and be even nastier first. Or alternatively, when we don’t think the cost benefit analysis favours aggression, to cower, and cede ground to brutish displays of force.
Of words and war: Freedom of speech on social media during ‘wartime’
19 April 2022
In the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Meta announced a stark change in its policy. For an unspecified period, it would allow Facebook posts that called for violence against Russian invaders, the death of Russian President Vladimir Putin, and/or showed support for the Ukrainian ultranationalist Azov Battalion.
Given that the new policy essentially allowed for explicit incitement to violence, the lack of outcry was shocking.
It is a striking time: speech is being regulated and deregulated in favour of violence and partisanship. Remember that after Facebook was accused of allowing content that facilitated violence against the Rohingya in Myanmar and of allowing the spread of disinformation about the 2016 U.S. election, it made a point of setting up fact-checking groups.
A Western defence spending spree may undermine democracies
14 April 2022
Eisenhower began by recalling the way that the Allied victory over the Nazi regime had given people hope for a future that was defined by peace and freedom (not unlike the way many people felt after the fall of the Berlin Wall). By 1953, in Eisenhower’s view, that bright hope was all but gone. He argued that:
The amassing of Soviet power alerted free nations to a new danger of aggression. It compelled them in self-defence to spend unprecedented money and energy for armaments.
One can imagine speaking almost these same lines a few years hence, merely replacing “the amassing of Soviet power” with “the Russian invasion of Ukraine.” One critical difference is that the threat of Soviet power was at that time unrealised; the threat posed by Russian military aggression is now brutally manifested on Ukraine.
Defending Ukraine means defending democracy
12 April 2022
In the weeks since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the dominant Western narrative has focused on the need to defend not just Ukraine but “democracy.” Experts and leaders have equated support for Ukraine with the defence of the legitimacy of the democratic model of governance.
On the other hand, there are those who have pointed to the naivete of such sentiments, arguing that defeating Russia will necessarily mean engaging non-democracies. Others, including International IDEA, have recalled that Ukraine’s democratic performance was decidedly mid-range in the lead-up to the war. In fact, Transparency International’s latest analysis, which ranks Ukraine 122nd in its Corruption Perceptions Index, is a reminder of the deeply entrenched problem of corruption in the country. So what does the war mean for democracy?
Russia’s Invasion Has Become a Watershed Moment for Germany
3 March 2022
In just thirty minutes on Sunday, Chancellor Olaf Scholz put Germany on a radical new path.
In an extraordinary speech made during a special session of the German parliament on Sunday, Scholz ended the decades-long Ostpolitik of his Social Democratic Party (SPD), with immense ramifications for Europe and NATO. Ostpolitik, or “eastern policy,” was forged in the early 1970s and intended to bring the Soviet Union politically and economically closer to Europe. One major component was building a gas pipeline, which the United States opposed, that West Germany hoped would bring confidence, stability, and predictability with the USSR. But Ostpolitik also meant that Germany’s ruling left wing had little sympathy for dissident movements in communist Eastern Europe, as these movements upset the Cold War status quo. That belief in having a special relationship with Russia persisted even when President Vladimir Putin invaded Georgia in 2008 and annexed Crimea in 2014. Germany’s powerful and influential business lobbies and pro-Russia left-wingers preferred to protect their interests with Russia, despite the Kremlin’s crackdown on human rights, press freedom, and civil society.
Russia’s War in Ukraine Is a Watershed Moment for Internet Platforms
3 March 2022
In Russia’s short, brutal invasion of Ukraine, one of the most iconic images has been Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky standing defiantly in front of the presidency building, flanked by his senior aides, telling the world, “We are here. We are in Kyiv. We are protecting Ukraine.” The video has served as a rallying cry for Ukrainian citizens and has galvanized Western democracies in support of Zelensky’s beleaguered government. As Megan Garber writes, “statecraft, often, is stagecraft,” and Zelensky “understands that better than most.”
How Does This End?
3 March 2022
Wars sometimes start easily, but it is a tenet of strategy that they are always unpredictable and extremely hard to end. Putin’s war of choice in Ukraine is already escalating faster than most experts would have imagined just a week ago. He has now encircled major Ukrainian cities with his army and threatens to flatten them with thermobaric weapons, cluster munitions, and guided missiles. This will terrorize the civilian population and could demoralize the budding Ukrainian resistance. He could escalate the conflict to another region, such as the Balkans, where long-standing conflicts fester and Russia has an extensive network of intelligence and security services. He may turn the lights off in a major U.S. city with a cyber attack. Most frighteningly, he has raised the alert level of Russian nuclear forces and may be considering introducing martial law.
Ukraine’s real-life challenge for democracy
26 February 2022
One hundred countries joined President Biden’s Summit for Democracy in December to affirm global commitment to democracy during a period of decline and rising authoritarianism. Lofty pledges were made, and the White House announced 2022 as a “year of action” during which countries will hone their commitments to democratic reform. Meanwhile Russian bombardment of Ukraine is underway with the aim to “reclaim” a democracy under authoritarian rule.
The very aims of the Summit are being tested in real time. The threat of autocratic takeover is not a theoretical thought exercise; it’s happening.
Sanctions Are A Tool, Not A Magic Wand
24 February 2022
As Russia has menaced Ukraine with a buildup of troops in recent weeks—and even after those forces ultimately crossed the border—much media and expert commentary has focused on what the U.S. and EU sanctions response should be, analyzing its effects and predicting its timing. As CNN reported explosions in major Ukrainian cities on Wednesday night, it added in the next breath that the White House was expected to respond with powerful sanctions Thursday.
Sanctions are an important tool for imposing costs on Russia, but they are not powerful enough to change behavior in the Kremlin. Even the most aggressive sanctions in U.S. history would not have the ability to stop Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in its tracks. Nor would they quickly reverse annexations of territory. That assessment is not an indictment of sanctions along the lines that they “don’t work.” It is simply asking too much of them.
The United States Must Punish Russia but Remember the Limits of Power
24 February 2022
At the direction of President Vladimir Putin, Russia has committed staggering acts of aggression against Ukraine. Its invasion is brazen in substance and style. Russia is threatening to overthrow the government in Kyiv. It seems to flaunt the flimsiness of its pretexts. Though always thuggish, Putin once seemed averse to risk. Now he has taken a world-shaking gamble whose ultimate implications neither he nor anyone else can foresee.
For Americans, this is a dangerous moment, and a disorienting one. The United States has spent much of the past three decades dealing with powers much weaker than itself. Even so, it has learned painful lessons about the limits of its power and its capacity to do harm as well as good. These lessons may be difficult to recall in the face of Russia’s deplorable and ongoing attack. But they have become only more important now, as the United States confronts a great power and nuclear peer capable of inflicting damage well beyond Ukraine.
No war is inevitable. This is the moment for diplomacy
22 February 2022
Russian President Vladimir Putin has formally recognized the Donetsk and Luhansk regions of southeast Ukraine as independent states and ordered military forces to enter these Russian-controlled areas. The situation in and around Ukraine has thus reached a critical, albeit fluid, phase, a considerable escalation that signals a possible mortal blow to the Minsk agreements.
As was to be expected, this act is widely condemned as a violation of international law and has triggered a wave of sanctions announced towards Moscow by various Western leaders. It remains to be seen what it will incite in terms of the Ukrainian response.